Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:49:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca56…14b9 other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,379 (-1%) realized −$1,379 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate23%27W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$810per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$646now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$11
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$104
politics 34% −$40
sports 13% −$1,420
world 4% −$33
culture 2% −$2
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 61 -19.8% -27.4% 5% 0% -12.2%
all 118 -5.7% -14.7% 23% 8% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 8% -10.8%
10% -22.9% 8% -19.4%
15% -30.3% 6% -27.2%
20% -37.2% 3% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,072) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$20 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$646
Realized−$1,379
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses27 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage141d
Avg bet$810
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $645 $646 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 27 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $984 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,679 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,202 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $2,360 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $1,072 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,067 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,028 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $1,081 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $5,429 −$6 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,594 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $338 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 03 $428 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 29 $352 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,690 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,163 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,160 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,199 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con May 01 $615 +$1 +0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $532 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $486 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $2,462 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,146 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,137 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,148 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,146 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,172 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,162 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,047 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $4,043 −$4 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $2,131 −$2 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $924 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,068 −$1 -0%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Apr 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $886 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $520 1h
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $521 4h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $519 8h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $520 9h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $496 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $496 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $522 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $523 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $450 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $451 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $416 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $417 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $645 10d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $706 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $707 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,154 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,156 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,169 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,171 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,044 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,046 14d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,045 14d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,047 15d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,071 20d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,072 20d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,066 21d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,067 21d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,026 22d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,028 23d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,080 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $645.71 · official $645.71 (match) · 359 history records