Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xca51…a24e other 33 markets active 6d ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$212 (+1%) realized +$211 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate100%30W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,012per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$4,196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$43
14 days+$43
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$50
crypto 25% +$61
politics 19% +$72
weather 7% +$2
economics 7% +$12
world 3% +$2
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.2% -6.6% 100% 25% -8.6%
≤30d 4 +3.2% -6.6% 100% 25% -8.6%
≤90d 16 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 6% -8.9%
all 30 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 3% -8.9%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$932) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$4,196
Realized+$211
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses30 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage102d
Avg bet$1,012
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,804 $1,823 +$19 (+1%)
World Cup: Winless Team? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1,564 $1,566 +$2 (+0%)
Will Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 98¢ 94¢ $528 $507 −$21 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $90 +$10 +11%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $99 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 11 $4,154 +$32 +1%
Will Greece come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $885 +$2 +0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $932 +$1 +0%
Will Finland come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,839 +$4 +0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $931 +$1 +0%
Will Union Bordeaux Begles win? May 15 $49 $0 +0%
Will Montpellier win? May 15 $111 +$1 +1%
Will Finland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $767 +$3 +0%
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 May 08 $155 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 01 $4,111 +$29 +1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $4,066 +$45 +1%
Will Sophia Chikirou advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris mun Mar 22 $2,823 +$3 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Mar 22 $1,211 +$29 +2%
Will Atalanta reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 19 $400 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $2,402 +$12 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on March 17? Mar 18 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on March 16? Mar 17 $407 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on March 14? Mar 16 $407 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 69°F or below on March 13? Mar 13 $407 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on March 12? Mar 13 $406 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on March 11? Mar 11 $142 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on March 11? Mar 11 $264 $0 +0%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? Mar 10 $388 +$17 +4%
Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Mar 08 $388 +$1 +0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026? Mar 05 $386 +$2 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $386 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by February 28? Mar 02 $385 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 98¢ $1,805 6d
Will Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $528 6d
World Cup: Winless Team? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,564 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $90 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 South Africa? BUY No 99¢ $99 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 South Africa? BUY No 100¢ $100 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3,663 31d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $932 31d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $931 32d
Will Union Bordeaux Begles win? BUY Yes 100¢ $49 39d
Will Montpellier win? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 39d
Will Montpellier win? BUY Yes 99¢ $61 39d
Will Greece come in last place at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $885 43d
Will Finland come in last place at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,839 43d
Will Finland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 100¢ $767 43d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $295 44d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $197 46d
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 BUY Yes 98¢ $155 47d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $820 70d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $30 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $71 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $679 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $74 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $100 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $242 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $50 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $63 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $68 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $72 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $1,092 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,196.33 · official $4,196.33 (match) · 84 history records