Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:21:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xca4f…7852
crypto · 48 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$506 -38%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$517 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$83
Realized−$517
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses10 / 30
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)40 / 48
History coverage91d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 8 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$115
7 days−$201
14 days−$168
30 days−$330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-6%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 23¢ 22¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 19¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Aiemann Zahabi 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Kyle Daukaus 27¢ 28¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-43%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Arthur Fery 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $128 $0 −$128 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Giants Lucknow Super Giants 5¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Passion UA 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Gujarat Titans 48¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Natus Vincere 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-04-24? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +37%
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +9%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $108 −$106 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Cattolica (Doubles): Jecan/Pavel vs Logrippo/Ricci Jun 08 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 08 $26 +$4 +17%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $82 +$188 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 02 $51 +$24 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 02 $211 −$151 -71%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 30 $64 −$63 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 30 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $10 +$8 +76%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Apr 16 $39 −$38 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-04-24? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 15 $27 −$26 -96%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $22 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 15 $150 +$42 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$9 -93%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi Apr 15 $17 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Apr 14 $1 $0 -43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 14 $1 +$4 +388%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 15 $34 −$33 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 58% −$375
other 26% −$15
sports 16% −$138
politics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $29 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 28¢ $6 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 21¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $12 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler 19¢ $10 5h
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 5h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 47h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 6d
Cattolica (Doubles): Jecan/Pavel vs Logrippo/Ricci SELL Logrippo/Ricci 6¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-50.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -41.2% -46.8% 33% 27% -80.3%
≤30d 23 -41.0% -46.6% 30% 26% -48.8%
≤90d 38 -41.9% -47.5% 26% 24% -44.1%
all 40 -44.8% -50.1% 25% 22% -49.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.1% 22% -49.8%
10% -54.9% 20% -54.6%
15% -59.2% 18% -59.0%
20% -63.2% 10% -63.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.39 · official $83.39 (match) · 92 history records