Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:21:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca4f…bc8e other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-3%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$54
world 30% +$11
sports 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-55.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -51.1% -55.8% 35% 35% -30.6%
≤30d 17 -51.1% -55.8% 35% 35% -30.6%
≤90d 17 -51.1% -55.8% 35% 35% -30.6%
all 17 -51.1% -55.8% 35% 35% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.8% 35% -30.6%
10% ← realistic here -60.0% 18% -37.3%
15% -63.9% 12% -43.3%
20% -67.4% 12% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $61 +$11 +19%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $21 +$12 +54%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $17 +$4 +21%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 $0 +22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$4 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 1h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 84¢ $61 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 84¢ $20 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $15 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 100¢ $33 4h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? BUY No 77¢ $35 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $21 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 43¢ $21 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 9h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 82¢ $17 10h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 11h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $1 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $9 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 81¢ $1 27h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 53¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records