Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:54:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca4e…850c crypto 115 markets active 8h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$38 (+3%) realized +$29 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%56W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day61.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$91
sports 3% +$10
other 2% +$9
world 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 40% -15.3%
≤30d 111 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 40% -15.3%
≤90d 111 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 40% -15.3%
all 111 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 40% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 40% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 34% -23.4%
15% -26.2% 26% -30.8%
20% -33.4% 19% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses56 / 55
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)111 / 115
History coverage4d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day61.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 6¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+0%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 34¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 20¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 6¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$4 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $32 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$22 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$21 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $53 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $28 −$24 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $82 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $28 −$23 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $127 +$16 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.89 · official $8.89 (match) · 325 history records