Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:26:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xca4d…5b1d
crypto · 234 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,804 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,805 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37
Realized−$1,805
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses108 / 122
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)230 / 234
History coverage67d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 4 History 230 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$255
14 days−$252
30 days−$828
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$10 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $136 −$32 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $129 −$13 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $99 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $32 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$25 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$1,877
other 2% +$136
sports 1% −$53
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 6h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 +2.4% -7.4% 55% 54% -25.2%
≤30d 186 -5.7% -14.7% 51% 49% -30.8%
≤90d 230 -9.8% -18.4% 47% 46% -32.7%
all 230 -9.8% -18.4% 47% 46% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 46% -32.7%
10% -26.2% 38% -39.1%
15% -33.3% 29% -45.0%
20% -39.9% 22% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.66 · official $36.66 (match) · 616 history records