Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CA 0xca4c…b5a3 crypto 55 markets active 6d ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$188 (-7%) realized −$140 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$203
14 days−$263
30 days−$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$304
politics 10% −$48
finance 6% +$48
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -20.5% -28.0% 45% 36% -25.1%
≤30d 52 -13.6% -21.9% 42% 38% -20.0%
≤90d 52 -13.6% -21.9% 42% 38% -20.0%
all 52 -13.6% -21.9% 42% 38% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 38% -20.0%
10% -29.3% 33% -27.6%
15% -36.2% 25% -34.6%
20% -42.4% 17% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$26 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$140
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage9d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No 50¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $45 $5 −$40 (-89%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 7¢ 2¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $134 −$134 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $202 −$202 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $293 +$43 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $246 −$19 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $179 +$63 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $92 +$64 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$17 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 09 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 03 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 03 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 03 $13 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 03 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 03 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 03 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 03 $16 −$15 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 7? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 7? Jun 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 7? Jun 03 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 03 $4 +$5 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 03 $103 +$7 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 03 $50 +$14 +27%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 03 $101 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 02 $128 −$121 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 02 $31 −$25 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 02 $26 +$3 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 02 $10 +$24 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 02 $51 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 02 $66 +$25 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 02 $12 +$103 +831%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 02 $20 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 02 $16 −$15 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 02 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 02 $56 −$5 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $181 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $173 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.02 · official $17.02 (match) · 167 history records