Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:01:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CA 0xca4a…a055 crypto 537 markets active 2h ago coverage 579d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$87 (-0%) realized −$119 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%172W / 320L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$428now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days+$20
14 days+$377
30 days+$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$81
economics 13% +$159
other 8% −$77
world 7% −$300
finance 5% +$29
sports 4% −$32
tech 2% +$51
politics 1% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 -18.3% -26.1% 24% 22% -8.4%
≤30d 228 -12.4% -20.8% 32% 30% -0.5%
≤90d 289 -18.8% -26.5% 31% 29% -9.3%
all 492 -25.1% -32.2% 35% 29% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.2% 29% -10.0%
10% -38.7% 25% -18.6%
15% -44.6% 21% -26.5%
20% -50.0% 15% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$15 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

579d coverage
Net worth$428
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses172 / 320
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions42
Markets (closed)492 / 537
History coverage579d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 492 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $45 $47 +$2 (+4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $23 $26 +$4 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 18¢ 38¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+109%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $5 $19 +$14 (+284%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+41%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 74¢ 90¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+41%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 196 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -95%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +474%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$11 +1116%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$8 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$142 +443%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $64 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $72 −$2 -3%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -34%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$13 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$15 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$21 -65%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$4 +13%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $62 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$1 -4%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$7 -68%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -86%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$49 +154%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 4h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 4h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 15h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 45h
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $428.32 · official $428.33 (match) · 1132 history records