Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:24:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca49…a6a9 crypto 842 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$244 (+2%) realized +$244 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%313W / 529L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day50.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$109
14 days−$347
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -20.0% -27.6% 29% 27% -25.8%
≤30d 814 -11.8% -20.2% 36% 35% -9.4%
≤90d 842 -11.2% -19.7% 37% 36% -9.1%
all 842 -11.2% -19.7% 37% 36% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 36% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 34% -17.8%
15% -34.4% 31% -25.8%
20% -40.8% 26% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$244
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses313 / 529
Open positions0
Markets (closed)842 / 842
History coverage32d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day50.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 842 Trades
no open positions (425 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$9 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$5 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$8 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$7 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $23 −$8 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$10 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$13 +306%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $19 +$20 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$5 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$8 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$14 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$5 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$6 +295%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $17 +$16 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $7 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1747 history records