Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:21:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca48…b9fb sports 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17 (-4%) realized −$18 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%25W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day59.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$30
other 29% +$13
world 15% −$58
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -0.1% -9.6% 44% 44% -14.6%
≤30d 57 -0.1% -9.6% 44% 44% -14.6%
≤90d 57 -0.1% -9.6% 44% 44% -14.6%
all 57 -0.1% -9.6% 44% 44% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 44% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 35% -22.8%
15% -26.1% 30% -30.2%
20% -33.4% 23% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses25 / 32
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions17
Markets (closed)57 / 74
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day59.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Under 85¢ 90¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+6%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 74¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 87¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? No 78¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Huning in 2026? No 94¢ 91¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$2 +17%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $33 +$19 +56%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16 +$4 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2 +$4 +216%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 −$1 -36%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +206%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$3 +124%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 −$1 -38%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 +$9 +152%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$4 +36%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $2 +$16 +749%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +107%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $19 +$6 +33%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $29 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 85¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 78¢ $5 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $1 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 73¢ $8 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 70¢ $14 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 70¢ $30 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 27¢ $1 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 74¢ $20 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 92¢ $1 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $1 29h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $1 37h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 38h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1 38h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 38h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 38h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $1 38h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $1 38h
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 38h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $10 38h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 46h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 46h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 46h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 46h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 46h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.59 · official $91.59 (match) · 208 history records