Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca48…827e weather 629 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (154 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,257 (+1%) realized +$1,256 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%621W / 10L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day153.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$89
7 days−$55
14 days−$350
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (154 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -2.7% -12.0% 96% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 631 -0.0% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 631 -0.0% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 631 -0.0% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover153.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$72 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized+$1,256
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses621 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)631 / 629
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$197
Trades / day153.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 631 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $149 $150 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ma Jun 21 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 27? Jun 21 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 17? Jun 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 17? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on May 1 Jun 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on May 17? Jun 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 21? Jun 21 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 21 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 21 $482 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $630 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 21 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 20? Jun 21 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1,199 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 87°F or below on June 20? Jun 20 $534 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 20? Jun 20 $504 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $56 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $148 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $352 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $544 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $446 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $62 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? Jun 19 $743 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6,120 +$9 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on June Jun 19 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $607 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1,149 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $297 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $629 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $176 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $1,001 16m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $75 16m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $5 18m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $229 21m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $341 21m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $182 21m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $169 21m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $149 47m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $1,000 47m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $466 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $875 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $449 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $72 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $928 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $72 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 5h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $149 10h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $400 10h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $15 10h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $15 10h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $200 11h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $630 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.59 · official $182.90 · 3500 history records