Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:18:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

CA 0xca45…c508 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$13 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate33%2W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$111per market

Trades / day2.2pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-0.4%	-9.9%	33%	0%	-9.8%
≤30d	6	-0.4%	-9.9%	33%	0%	-9.8%
≤90d	6	-0.4%	-9.9%	33%	0%	-9.8%
all	6	-0.4%	-9.9%	33%	0%	-9.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.9%	0%	-9.8%
10%	-18.5%	0%	-18.4%
15%	-26.4%	0%	-26.3%
20%	-33.6%	0%	-33.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.83 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$13

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses2 / 4

Open positions0

Markets (closed)6 / 6

History coverage6d

Avg bet$111

Trades / day2.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 6 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 23	$102	−$2	-2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$102	+$9	+8%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$102	−$2	-2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$102	−$2	-2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$153	+$1	+1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$102	−$5	-5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	SELL No	96¢	$100	1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	96¢	$102	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$102	27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	SELL No	96¢	$100	2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	96¢	$102	2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	SELL No	96¢	$100	3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	96¢	$102	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$56	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$51	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	88¢	$99	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$102	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	76¢	$97	6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$102	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records