Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca43…1df5 tech 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate22%9W / 32L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$5
politics 27% −$10
sports 16% −$18
tech 15% +$36
economics 6% −$1
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +0.7% -8.9% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 24 +0.0% -9.5% 8% 0% -9.8%
all 41 +1.6% -8.0% 22% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 2% -9.5%
10% -16.8% 2% -18.2%
15% -24.9% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$550) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage214d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $115 $115 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 09 $1,122 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,121 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 08 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 08 $112 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $108 +$4 +4%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 06 $1,002 −$15 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $1,006 −$6 -1%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,009 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,013 −$2 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 30 $106 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 10 $548 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $550 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 10 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 10 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 06 $42 +$1 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar) Mar 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 01 $96 +$1 +1%
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, Feb 17 $97 $0 -0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 17 $364 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 17 $92 +$5 +5%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 30 $39 +$2 +4%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 30 $50 +$2 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $89 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $179 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $90 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 16 $88 +$1 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 21 $46 +$20 +44%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 01 $42 +$4 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $115 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $116 5d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $112 18d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $110 19d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $110 19d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $110 19d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $110 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $110 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $110 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $112 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $112 20d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 100¢ $112 28d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 96¢ $108 40d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $982 53d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $984 53d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $987 53d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1,002 53d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $1,000 53d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $1,006 53d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,007 53d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,009 53d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,009 53d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,011 53d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $1,011 53d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $1,012 53d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,011 53d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,013 53d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL Yes 99¢ $106 58d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $106 72d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $546 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.78 · official $114.78 (match) · 101 history records