Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CA 0xca3a…5785 crypto 2016 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$60 (+3%) realized +$90 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate17%334W / 1608L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$274
7 days+$425
14 days+$454
30 days+$488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$401
other 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-56.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +77.9% +60.9% 73% 73% +45.6%
≤30d 202 +65.3% +49.6% 64% 64% +44.7%
≤90d 1942 -51.9% -56.5% 17% 14% +14.6%
all 1942 -51.9% -56.5% 17% 14% +14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -56.5% 14% +14.6%
10% ← realistic here -60.6% 12% +3.6%
15% -64.4% 10% -6.4%
20% -67.9% 8% -15.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt +29% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -66% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×9.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$90
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses334 / 1608
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1942 / 2016
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1942 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$54 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$22 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$17 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$31 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$43 +139%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$32 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$45 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$45 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$8 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$10 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$12 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$5 +166%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$22 +820%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$9 +280%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$6 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$6 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $31 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $31 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $31 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $31 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $12 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $17 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $32 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $31 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $31 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $31 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $32 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $31 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $31 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $32 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $31 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $31 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $6 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $6 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $6 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $6 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 3500 history records