Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca38…0b7d crypto 185 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,027 (-7%) realized −$10,027 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate44%82W / 103L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$778per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,756
7 days−$11,553
14 days−$11,553
30 days−$11,553
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$5,899
other 2% −$2,108
tech 1% −$1,436
sports 0% −$614
culture 0% −$60
world 0% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -67.9% -71.0% 11% 5% -39.4%
≤30d 75 -67.9% -71.0% 11% 5% -39.4%
≤90d 82 -64.5% -67.9% 12% 7% -40.1%
all 185 -29.4% -36.2% 44% 25% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.2% 25% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -42.3% 12% -24.0%
15% -47.9% 5% -31.3%
20% -53.0% 3% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$217 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10,027
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses82 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)185 / 185
History coverage179d
Avg bet$778
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 185 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $285 +$368 +129%
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Alex Warren perform at the 2026 Grammy Awards? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bruno Mars perform at the 2026 Grammy Awards? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pusha T perform at the 2026 Grammy Awards? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tyler the Creator perform at the 2026 Grammy Awards? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68t Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Lady Gaga perform at the 2026 Grammy Awards? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $166 −$32 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 Grammy Awards? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $3,302 +$1,126 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2,336 +$167 +7%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $308 −$85 -28%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-28? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $207 −$79 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $237 −$69 -29%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1,136 +$109 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 10 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $425 −$75 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $347 −$81 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $446 −$79 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $381 −$73 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $844 −$77 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $38 −$7 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $234 −$123 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $2,327 +$159 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $331 −$41 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $2,700 −$114 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $284 −$284 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jun 16 $307 −$307 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $771 −$186 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $653 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $285 9h
Senegal to score first vs. France? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 29h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 19¢ $43 29h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $102 30h
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 30h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $306 30h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $307 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $128 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $111 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $94 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $129 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1785 history records