Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:43:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CA 0xca2d…27ac politics 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 669d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 77L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$13
other 12% −$2
economics 11% −$2
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 77 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

669d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage669d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $55 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $56 $0 +0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 04 $56 $0 +0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 21 $56 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $56 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 16 $56 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 13 $56 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $56 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Sean Winter win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Nov 24 $54 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle United finish in the top 4 of EPL? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win La Liga? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will RFK Jr. be Trump's HHS Secretary? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Myles Garrett win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will LaMelo Ball lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Nice win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon's daughter move out of the U.S.? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans finish with the worst record in the NFL? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the Western Conference? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will A.J. Brown be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Democrats win popular vote by 4-5%? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Dec 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will Chris Olave be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Jets win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before December? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
US bank failure before December? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Running Back? Nov 26 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will Lazio win the Serie A? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will the New York Giants win the NFC East? Nov 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 17 $0 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $55 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $55 16d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 18d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 18d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 32d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 32d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 42d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 42d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 52d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 52d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 72d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 72d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $56 78d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $56 78d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $56 86d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $56 87d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $56 100d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $56 101d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 105d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 105d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $56 105d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $53 106d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $3 106d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 108d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 108d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 111d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 112d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 180 history records