Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:55:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xca2b…3489
sports · 1178 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$566 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$331 · open +$39
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$561
Realized+$331
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses626 / 550
Est. fees paid−$274
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1176 / 1178
History coverage136d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 2 History 1176 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$324
14 days+$413
30 days+$676
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Donna Vekic 76¢ 100¢ $101 $133 +$32 (+32%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Katie Volynets 30¢ 100¢ $30 $99 +$69 (+233%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Ben Shelton 41¢ 100¢ $36 $89 +$53 (+144%)
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Kamil Majchrzak 17¢ 100¢ $13 $76 +$63 (+488%)
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Mattia Bellucci 32¢ 100¢ $18 $57 +$39 (+211%)
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Rinky Hijikata 45¢ 100¢ $22 $50 +$28 (+122%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Anna Blinkova 41¢ 100¢ $20 $48 +$28 (+144%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds No 45¢ 45¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Sofia Kenin 22¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Anna Bondar 36¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Celine Naef 54¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Emma Raducanu 42¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Lorenzo Sonego 22¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 32¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $124 −$21 -17%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $13 +$63 +476%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $61 −$24 -39%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $23 +$28 +120%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $16 −$15 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +86%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5 Jun 14 $22 +$26 +114%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $21 +$27 +124%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 14 $25 +$27 +105%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 170.5 Jun 14 $27 +$26 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 14 $31 +$27 +86%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 14 $31 +$31 +97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 14 $30 +$47 +161%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 14 $22 +$57 +262%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $44 +$35 +79%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $51 +$31 +60%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5) Jun 14 $65 −$65 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $93 −$10 -11%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $103 −$10 -10%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $36 −$16 -44%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $30 +$69 +228%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $56 −$10 -18%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $65 −$14 -22%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $64 +$7 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 73% +$430
crypto 18% −$167
other 8% +$113
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Donna Vekic 76¢ $102 1h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 17¢ $13 1h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 41¢ $37 2h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron BUY Rinky Hijikata 45¢ $23 2h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Mattia Bellucci 32¢ $19 2h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Sofia Kenin 22¢ $16 2h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 32¢ $24 3h
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 42¢ $22 3h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 41¢ $20 3h
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Lorenzo Sonego 22¢ $21 4h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 30¢ $30 4h
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef BUY Celine Naef 54¢ $41 4h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 36¢ $16 5h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $38 10h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 34¢ $25 11h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 35¢ $17 12h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 39¢ $20 12h
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $28 13h
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Spurs 45¢ $20 13h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 13h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 51¢ $24 13h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 71¢ $67 13h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 48¢ $37 13h
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) BUY Spurs 34¢ $16 14h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $72 14h
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 BUY No 44¢ $21 15h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 BUY Under 27¢ $22 15h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5 BUY Under 46¢ $22 15h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 35¢ $29 15h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 BUY Over 8¢ $7 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 300 -10.4% -18.9% 43% 41% -12.1%
≤30d 720 +3.3% -6.5% 50% 48% -6.2%
≤90d 839 +1.7% -7.9% 51% 48% -6.2%
all 1176 -1.8% -11.2% 53% 50% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 50% -8.3%
10% -19.7% 39% -17.1%
15% -27.5% 31% -25.1%
20% -34.6% 27% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $561.46 · official $561.46 (match) · 3500 history records