Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca29…a1d0 sports 1057 markets active 4d ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,592 (-5%) realized −$1,592 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%488W / 569L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$357est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$96
14 days−$324
30 days−$324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,823
other 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -16.8% -24.7% 41% 41% -25.1%
≤30d 291 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 45% -13.1%
≤90d 871 -1.6% -11.0% 47% 46% -11.0%
all 1057 -3.0% -12.2% 46% 45% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 45% -14.9%
10% -20.6% 44% -23.0%
15% -28.3% 43% -30.5%
20% -35.3% 42% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$24 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,592
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses488 / 569
Est. fees paid−$357
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1057 / 1057
History coverage115d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1057 Trades
no open positions (465 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$8 -36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$6 -67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $17 −$3 -20%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 +$4 +21%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Sonmez vs Linette Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $19 −$8 -43%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $23 −$23 -99%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito Jun 12 $24 +$8 +33%
ITF Tokyo: Kayo Nishimura vs Mao Mushika Jun 12 $9 +$5 +55%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) Jun 12 $36 −$35 -99%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $20 +$15 +76%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $34 −$14 -42%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $19 +$15 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $21 +$13 +63%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $25 +$17 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $19 −$19 -98%
Martin Landaluce vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $13 +$2 +19%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $8 +$6 +70%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $26 −$18 -70%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $8 +$15 +188%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $10 +$13 +123%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $13 +$15 +114%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 11 $3 +$4 +132%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $9 +$10 +112%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $37 −$7 -19%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $18 +$12 +68%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $10 +$8 +78%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Tucuman: Maximo Zeitune vs Arklon Del Pino Jun 10 $19 −$15 -80%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 10 $10 +$9 +91%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 10 $17 −$7 -40%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 10 $9 +$7 +79%
Set 1 Winner: Bu vs Rodesch Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $11 $0 -1%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $5 $0 -4%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $9 −$5 -50%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Tai Leonard Sach Jun 10 $13 −$13 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $14 −$1 -4%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $30 −$17 -54%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $16 +$14 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 30¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $8 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 56¢ $8 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 56¢ $8 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 29¢ $3 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 12¢ $3 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 35¢ $9 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 28¢ $13 5d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) SELL Legacy 32¢ $13 5d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Legacy 40¢ $17 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $16 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 66¢ $11 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Marcos Giron 44¢ $12 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 45¢ $12 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 56¢ $12 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 44¢ $10 5d
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) BUY Bonzi 41¢ $8 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 43¢ $8 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $9 5d
Set 1 Winner: Sonmez vs Linette BUY Sonmez 48¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 52¢ $23 5d
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito BUY Sara Saito 61¢ $14 5d
ITF Tokyo: Kayo Nishimura vs Mao Mushika SELL Kayo Nishimura 99¢ $14 5d
ITF Tokyo: Kayo Nishimura vs Mao Mushika BUY Kayo Nishimura 63¢ $9 5d
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito SELL Sara Saito 52¢ $9 5d
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito BUY Sara Saito 55¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff BUY Wanted Goons 41¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff SELL Overtake 61¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff BUY Overtake 51¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1792 history records