Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:22:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca28…ceb2 other 354 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$469 (-3%) realized −$500 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%115W / 238L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$82
14 days−$82
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$412
sports 37% −$659
crypto 4% −$228
world 1% −$18
politics 0% −$15
culture 0% −$53
economics 0% −$12
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -31.2% -37.8% 21% 21% -35.4%
≤30d 14 -31.2% -37.8% 21% 21% -35.4%
≤90d 139 -22.2% -29.6% 37% 32% -31.6%
all 353 -12.9% -21.2% 33% 28% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 28% -20.7%
10% -28.8% 22% -28.3%
15% -35.7% 19% -35.2%
20% -42.0% 15% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$24 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized−$500
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses115 / 238
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)353 / 354
History coverage119d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? Yes 73¢ 90¢ $139 $170 +$31 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? Jun 28 $116 −$17 -15%
Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 5–10% Jun 28 $43 −$11 -26%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1 $0 -5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3 $0 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1 $0 -31%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$9 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $13 +$6 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$7 +69%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $43 −$17 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 26 $14 +$7 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 26 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 26 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 26 $11 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 26 $11 +$16 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 26 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 26 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 25 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 25 $11 +$7 +66%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? May 25 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 23 $103 −$93 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 23 $26 +$20 +76%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 23 $85 +$42 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 22 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 22 $6 −$5 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 22 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 22 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 22 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 22 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 22 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 22 $5 +$1 +11%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 21 $270 −$101 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 May 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 93¢ $84 1h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $38 1h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 1h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $56 1h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 1h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $52 1h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 2h
Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 5–10% SELL Yes 54¢ $31 2h
Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 5–10% BUY Yes 71¢ $17 2h
Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 5–10% BUY Yes 71¢ $12 2h
Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 5–10% BUY Yes 71¢ $13 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 55¢ $55 10h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 13h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $7 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $8 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $9 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 34h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $15 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $8 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.05 · official $169.10 (match) · 1345 history records