Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xca25…4fd7
crypto · 712 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$851 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$908 · open +$57
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$326
Realized−$908
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses396 / 311
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)707 / 712
History coverage174d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 5 History 707 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days−$474
30 days−$474
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $110 $108 −$2 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 52¢ $30 $79 +$49 (+162%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 73¢ 98¢ $55 $74 +$19 (+35%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 84¢ $44 $64 +$20 (+46%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $483 $0 −$483 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 +$9 +43%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $502 −$483 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 24 $80 −$56 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 24 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 24 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 24 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 24 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 24 $33 +$13 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 24 $20 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 24 $30 −$26 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 24 $40 +$17 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 24 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 24 $20 +$19 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 23 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 23 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 23 $30 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 23 $20 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 23 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 23 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 23 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 23 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 23 $60 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 23 $40 −$27 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 23 $70 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 23 $60 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 23 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 23 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 23 $20 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 23 $20 −$17 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 23 $20 +$13 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 23 $20 −$15 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 23 $10 +$22 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 23 $30 −$24 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 23 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 23 $10 +$14 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 23 $30 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 23 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 23 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 23 $30 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 23 $50 +$9 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 95% −$1,049
sports 3% +$163
other 2% +$34
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 69¢ $29 45m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $45 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 73¢ $55 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $113 2h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $208 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $114 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $104 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $14 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $50 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $11 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $30 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $5 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +43.2% +29.5% 100% 100% +29.5%
≤30d 2 -28.4% -35.2% 50% 50% -94.8%
≤90d 155 +4.7% -5.3% 65% 57% -24.7%
all 707 -0.3% -9.8% 56% 48% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 48% -15.0%
10% -18.5% 41% -23.2%
15% -26.3% 35% -30.6%
20% -33.6% 31% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $325.91 · official $325.91 (match) · 1889 history records