Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:46:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca23…f403 world 193 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 166d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,088 (+3%) realized +$147 · open +$941
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate64%105W / 59L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$4,619now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$178
7 days+$138
14 days+$259
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$879
other 24% +$778
crypto 16% −$313
politics 7% +$39
tech 1% +$2
sports 1% +$4
finance 1% $0
economics 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -18.6% -26.3% 60% 40% -2.5%
≤30d 53 -11.0% -19.5% 55% 40% -6.3%
≤90d 91 -3.0% -12.2% 60% 35% -3.7%
all 164 +0.5% -9.0% 64% 27% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 27% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 14% -15.6%
15% -25.7% 9% -23.7%
20% -33.0% 6% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$38 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$4,619
Realized+$147
Unrealized+$941
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses105 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions29
Markets (closed)164 / 193
History coverage166d ⚠
Avg bet$185
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $1,281 $1,656 +$374 (+29%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 55¢ 100¢ $332 $601 +$269 (+81%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 79¢ 88¢ $398 $440 +$42 (+10%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 79¢ 98¢ $345 $429 +$83 (+24%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 73¢ 82¢ $362 $409 +$48 (+13%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $172 $171 −$1 (-0%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 73¢ 88¢ $117 $141 +$23 (+20%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 79¢ 86¢ $95 $104 +$9 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $53 $75 +$22 (+41%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-0%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 61¢ 82¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+33%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 48¢ 64¢ $46 $61 +$15 (+32%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 96¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 50¢ 92¢ $27 $51 +$23 (+85%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 80¢ 88¢ $42 $46 +$5 (+11%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $32 $35 +$3 (+8%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 78¢ 86¢ $31 $35 +$3 (+11%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $34 $34 +$1 (+3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? No 63¢ 58¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-8%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 45¢ 51¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+13%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? No 68¢ 67¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 55¢ 94¢ $6 $9 +$4 (+70%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $243 +$30 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $67 −$8 -12%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $24 +$5 +21%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $27 +$13 +46%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $632 +$139 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $151 +$27 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $294 −$16 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $342 −$17 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $45 +$1 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $242 −$24 -10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $220 +$28 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -82%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $381 +$15 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $16 +$6 +37%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $8 +$1 +17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $141 +$40 +28%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $28 +$2 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $24 −$8 -32%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $17 +$2 +14%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 06 $16 −$11 -70%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $223 +$35 +16%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 06 $303 +$33 +11%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $147 +$28 +19%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 05 $10 −$5 -55%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,033 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $159 +$13 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $204 +$37 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $697 +$2 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 30 $79 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $6 −$2 -34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $9 −$2 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $705 −$152 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $649 −$115 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $11 −$2 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 29 $6 −$2 -27%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 29 $31 +$4 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 29 $8 +$2 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $105 −$35 -33%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 27 $81 +$23 +29%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $162 +$19 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $16 +$5 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $577 −$195 -34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $7 $0 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 25 $15 +$3 +23%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $741 −$15 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $32 −$2 -5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $5 −$3 -63%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 23 $114 +$10 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 88¢ $18 51m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 89¢ $12 56m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 69¢ $48 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 64¢ $13 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 94¢ $38 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 95¢ $38 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 55¢ $6 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $2 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $20 9h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 72¢ $14 9h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 13h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 13h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $10 13h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 63¢ $1 13h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 14h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 14h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 14h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 14h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 14h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 14h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 14h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 14h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 14h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 17h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 17h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 17h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 17h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,619.37 · official $4,618.40 (match) · 3500 history records