Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CA 0xca21…c947 politics 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$1
politics 50% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage103d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $115 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $115 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $115 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $115 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 16 $115 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $115 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $116 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $116 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $117 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $117 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $117 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $117 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $117 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 14 $117 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $115 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3 10h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $0 11h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 11h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1 13h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $2 13h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1 13h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1 14h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $2 15h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $99 15h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $115 25d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $35 26d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $80 26d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $115 28d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $92 28d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $6 28d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $16 28d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $115 36d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $115 37d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $115 39d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $115 40d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $115 41d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $115 41d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $115 42d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $116 43d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $116 46d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $116 47d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $117 68d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $117 69d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $117 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records