Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:51:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xca1f…d282
weather · 657 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$2,542 +17%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$999 · open +$645
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12,346
Realized+$999
Unrealized+$645
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses278 / 145
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions500
Markets (closed)423 / 657
History coverage6d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day224.4
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 500 History 423 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$967
7 days+$999
14 days+$999
30 days+$999
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 84¢ $377 $434 +$57 (+15%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No 86¢ 83¢ $325 $313 −$12 (-4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 43¢ $368 $282 −$85 (-23%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $216 $226 +$10 (+5%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 80¢ 84¢ $216 $225 +$10 (+4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 77¢ 80¢ $208 $215 +$8 (+4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 52¢ 88¢ $118 $203 +$84 (+71%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? No 73¢ 84¢ $169 $195 +$26 (+15%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 82¢ 99¢ $159 $192 +$33 (+21%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 86¢ 88¢ $180 $183 +$3 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 83¢ 99¢ $137 $165 +$28 (+20%)
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? No 32¢ 47¢ $108 $161 +$53 (+49%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 73¢ 78¢ $146 $155 +$9 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 58¢ $210 $152 −$57 (-27%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $144 $142 −$2 (-2%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 86¢ 99¢ $118 $136 +$18 (+15%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 63¢ 86¢ $92 $124 +$32 (+35%)
Blue tsunami in 2026? No 52¢ 57¢ $104 $115 +$11 (+11%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 82¢ $114 $115 +$1 (+1%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 83¢ 76¢ $121 $111 −$10 (-8%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $106 $106 +$1 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 67¢ 50¢ $139 $104 −$35 (-25%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 88¢ $82 $104 +$21 (+26%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 55¢ 63¢ $87 $101 +$13 (+15%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 64¢ 64¢ $99 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Jun 13 $12 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $20 +$4 +23%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 13 $15 +$5 +33%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 13 $12 +$8 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$4 +28%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 13 $3 +$7 +205%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$4 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$9 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $34 +$6 +17%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 13 $29 +$11 +39%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 13 $91 +$49 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $8 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 13 $13 +$7 +54%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $7 +$5 +72%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$15 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Jun 12 $14 +$6 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 −$25 -68%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 −$8 -26%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $16 +$4 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$10 -32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 12 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 12 $17 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$6 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$46 +335%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $37 +$64 +173%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 +$6 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$18 +963%
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? Jun 12 $42 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Jun 12 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $54 −$47 -86%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 12 $14 +$6 +45%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $34 +$86 +254%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $55 −$11 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 −$12 -72%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $13 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$3 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $11 +$3 +24%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 12 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 12 $34 −$15 -44%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 12 $18 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 41% +$21
other 28% +$601
world 17% +$588
politics 5% +$23
finance 3% +$111
tech 2% +$189
culture 2% +$47
sports 2% +$53
economics 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $14 0m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 63¢ $13 0m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 63¢ $13 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 63¢ $13 1m
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 83¢ $17 4m
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 75¢ $15 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 80¢ $16 12m
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 84¢ $17 14m
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 84¢ $17 14m
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 84¢ $9 15m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $18 15m
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 86¢ $17 36m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $15 52m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $16 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $15 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY No 61¢ $12 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY No 87¢ $17 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY No 75¢ $15 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 72¢ $15 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $16 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $15 1h
Will Trump say "Warrior" this week? BUY No 30¢ $4 2h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 87¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $14 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 423 +28.9% +16.6% 66% 62% +1.0%
≤30d 423 +28.9% +16.6% 66% 62% +1.0%
≤90d 423 +28.9% +16.6% 66% 62% +1.0%
all 423 +28.9% +16.6% 66% 62% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover224.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.6% 62% +1.0%
10% ← realistic here +5.4% 41% -8.7%
15% -4.7% 24% -17.5%
20% -14.1% 17% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,345.83 · official $12,487.38 · 3500 history records