Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:33:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CA 0xca1f…ed28 sports 210 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$21,857 (+10%) realized +$23,300 · open −$1,443
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate33%134W / 273L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,012per market
Trades / day54.5pace
Fees−$4,868est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$872now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$6,324
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 -56.6% -60.7% 12% 10% -69.9%
≤30d 256 -47.1% -52.1% 21% 16% -41.7%
≤90d 407 -30.3% -37.0% 33% 20% -26.5%
all 407 -30.3% -37.0% 33% 20% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.0% 20% -26.5%
10% ← realistic here -43.0% 14% -33.5%
15% -48.5% 10% -39.9%
20% -53.6% 8% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$588) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$204 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$872
Realized+$23,300
Unrealized−$1,443
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses134 / 273
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$4,868
Open positions2
Markets (closed)407 / 210
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$1,012
Trades / day54.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Power Rangers 65¢ 79¢ $587 $713 +$126 (+21%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Yellow Submarine 63¢ 21¢ $477 $159 −$318 (-67%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Natus Vincere 68¢ 0¢ $1,126 $1 −$1,125 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 273 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 27 $116 −$120 -104%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $67 −$67 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $108 −$97 -90%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $242 −$242 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Heroic (BO3) Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $160 −$121 -76%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner Jun 27 $290 −$290 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $27 −$20 -75%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $15 −$20 -133%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $226 −$226 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $196 −$118 -60%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $163 −$175 -107%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $172 −$103 -60%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $34 +$11 +31%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $1,311 −$1,309 -100%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $677 −$676 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $163 −$163 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $323 −$323 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $111 −$111 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $150 −$132 -88%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $146 −$122 -84%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic (BO1) Jun 27 $28 −$48 -169%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $834 −$834 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $590 −$683 -116%
Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $204 −$178 -87%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $129 −$80 -62%
Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 27 $356 −$315 -88%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $22 +$47 +212%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 27 $465 −$483 -104%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $7 −$13 -174%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $13 −$236 -1838%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham Playo Jun 27 $40 −$45 -114%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $429 −$371 -87%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 27 $80 +$11 +14%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $180 +$15 +8%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $198 −$198 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $94 −$94 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $11 +$33 +295%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $366 −$356 -97%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $256 −$245 -96%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $371 −$250 -67%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $33 −$51 -154%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) Jun 27 $70 −$70 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 27 $64 −$14 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 92¢ $62 0m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 92¢ $107 1m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 92¢ $1 1m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 92¢ $14 1m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 88¢ $28 2m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 88¢ $57 2m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 88¢ $7 2m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 88¢ $57 2m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 88¢ $57 2m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 88¢ $57 2m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 77¢ $22 2m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 77¢ $80 2m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 77¢ $13 3m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 83¢ $65 3m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 83¢ $48 3m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 83¢ $53 3m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 80¢ $240 5m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 62¢ $62 10m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $5 11m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 61¢ $77 15m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 55¢ $18 20m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 48¢ $65 20m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 48¢ $14 20m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 48¢ $22 20m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 48¢ $67 20m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 48¢ $244 21m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 45¢ $320 21m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 68¢ $269 26m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 71¢ $7 27m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 71¢ $25 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $872.42 · official $872.42 (match) · 3500 history records