Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xca1f…202a sports 299 markets active 2d ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,051 (+2%) realized +$1,051 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate64%192W / 107L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$210est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,023
7 days+$992
14 days+$1,085
30 days+$1,071
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$700
other 5% +$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -4.7% -13.7% 64% 64% -0.1%
≤30d 96 -2.8% -12.0% 62% 62% -2.9%
≤90d 170 -5.6% -14.6% 62% 59% -6.5%
all 299 -2.6% -11.8% 64% 61% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 61% -7.8%
10% -20.3% 48% -16.6%
15% -28.0% 34% -24.7%
20% -35.0% 22% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$85 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,051
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses192 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$210
Open positions0
Markets (closed)299 / 299
History coverage214d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 299 Trades
no open positions (95 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $7,160 +$2,023 +28%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $598 −$591 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $239 −$236 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $153 −$152 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $121 +$33 +27%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $62 −$62 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $48 +$14 +29%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $45 −$45 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $20 +$15 +75%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $58 −$57 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $30 +$13 +43%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $39 +$5 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $20 +$10 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$14 +137%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$14 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $6 +$4 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$47 +94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -99%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $60 +$30 +50%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $47 −$46 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $50 +$15 +30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $70 −$69 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $41 +$31 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$15 +29%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $19 +$6 +32%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$17 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $40 +$22 +55%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $137 +$44 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $100 +$29 +29%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $40 −$40 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $70 −$29 -41%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $18 −$18 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $7 +$7 +97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $10 +$4 +44%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $10 +$7 +68%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $78 +$16 +21%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $102 −$5 -5%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $22 −$22 -98%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $49 +$16 +32%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $100 +$36 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $101 +$49 +48%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $85 −$44 -52%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 18.5 Jun 09 $150 +$83 +56%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $55 −$54 -98%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $9,183 47h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 77¢ $7,160 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $597 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 64¢ $239 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 71¢ $153 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $153 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $121 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $62 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 73¢ $45 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 83¢ $36 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 46¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $27 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 47¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $43 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $44 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $30 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 88¢ $39 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $24 4d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $34 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 77¢ $48 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 58¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 59¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $10 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 60¢ $6 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 93¢ $97 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 637 history records