Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca1f…8cd2 economics 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 189d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$225 (-71%) realized −$140 · open −$85
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -92% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -92% what you keep after slip
Net edge-92%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$41
14 days−$41
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$127
economics 32% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-92.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -50.0% -54.8% 0% 0% -54.8%
≤30d 1 -50.0% -54.8% 0% 0% -54.8%
≤90d 2 -75.0% -77.4% 0% 0% -69.9%
all 6 -91.7% -92.5% 0% 0% -79.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -92.5% 0% -79.4%
10% -93.2% 0% -81.4%
15% -93.8% 0% -83.2%
20% -94.4% 0% -84.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -92% · $-wt -77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$23 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$140
Unrealized−$85
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage189d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $131 $46 −$85 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $83 −$41 -50%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 29 $44 −$42 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $32 −$32 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.99 · official $45.99 (match) · 10 history records