Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca1a…dcb1 world 27 markets active 1d ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% $0
other 15% −$2
politics 5% $0
sports 4% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.6% -10.9% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -1.6% -10.9% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -1.6% -10.9% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 27 -4.4% -13.5% 44% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 0% -10.0%
10% -21.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage458d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $91 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $9 −$1 -9%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 11 $3 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $29 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $29 $0 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 27 $8 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23? May 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Abdul Carter? Apr 23 $9 −$1 -14%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be out as Secretary of the Treasury in Trump's firs Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 29 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend? Mar 24 $13 $0 -1%
Israeli military action against Iran by Friday? Mar 23 $13 $0 +2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 19 $12 $0 -1%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $13 28h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 30h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 30h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 32h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 36h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 39h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $12 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $12 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $21 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $20 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $31 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $7 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $9 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes $3 6d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 6d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records