Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca16…9784 other 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 225L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$25
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$37
sports 23% −$20
politics 8% −$6
economics 7% −$5
crypto 5% −$3
world 5% −$4
culture 5% −$4
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 238 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)238 / 239
History coverage127d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $117 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $185 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $352 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $109 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $214 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $195 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $304 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $250 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $249 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $432 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $139 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $484 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $901 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $315 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $203 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $360 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $409 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $310 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $229 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $404 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $255 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $192 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $333 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $114 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $193 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $271 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $347 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $307 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $589 −$2 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $100 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $154 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $528 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $52 2h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 4h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $52 5h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 7h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $52 8h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $52 10h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 11h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 12h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 17h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 19h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 21h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 22h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $52 24h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $52 26h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $6 32h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 33h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $52 34h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $52 36h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $53 38h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 39h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 40h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $53 42h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 43h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 45h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 47h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.46 · official $51.46 (match) · 1315 history records