Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CA 0xca12…ea03 other 611 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,876 (+2%) realized +$14,248 · open −$2,372
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate79%471W / 122L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$1,188per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$16,618now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$138
14 days+$137
30 days+$1,052
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$2,503
other 18% +$4,111
tech 15% +$3,647
culture 5% +$2,320
finance 1% +$190
world 0% +$27
sports 0% +$11
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +3.5% -6.4% 91% 6% -8.7%
≤30d 249 +2.1% -7.6% 93% 6% -8.5%
≤90d 527 +12.1% +1.4% 79% 15% -6.8%
all 593 +17.1% +6.0% 79% 17% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.0% 17% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -4.2% 11% -15.3%
15% -13.4% 8% -23.5%
20% -21.9% 7% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$27 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.19 per $1 lost it wins $4.19
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$16,618
Realized+$14,248
Unrealized−$2,372
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses471 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)593 / 611
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$1,188
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 593 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 67¢ $7,500 $9,998 +$2,498 (+33%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 33¢ $7,500 $5,002 −$2,498 (-33%)
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? Up 77¢ 99¢ $494 $639 +$145 (+29%)
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $196 $200 +$4 (+2%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $171 $176 +$4 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 78¢ 81¢ $156 $163 +$7 (+4%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 74¢ $70 $74 +$4 (+6%)
Will Z.ai have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? No 90¢ 86¢ $72 $69 −$3 (-4%)
Will Drake have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? No 87¢ 90¢ $61 $63 +$2 (+3%)
Will Kanye West have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? No 94¢ 95¢ $48 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will The Weeknd have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? No 78¢ 99¢ $34 $44 +$10 (+28%)
Will Coldplay have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? No 91¢ 95¢ $42 $43 +$2 (+4%)
Will Billie Eilish have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? No 94¢ 95¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Under 100¢ 90¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Will Rihanna have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? No 89¢ 95¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will Noah Kahan have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? No 92¢ 97¢ $12 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Romano Schmid: 1+ assists No 100¢ 90¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 90¢ 97¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 92¢ 1¢ $46 $0 −$45 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 17 $371 +$3 +1%
Will Trump say "Memory" this week? Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on June 16? Jun 16 $103 +$1 +1%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 16 $53 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Johnson advance from the CA-16 primary election? Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Matt Ortega advance from the CA-14 primary election? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Rakhi Israni Singh advance from the CA-14 primary election? Jun 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will Chi Ossé win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Jun 16 $41 $0 -0%
Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Piastri? Jun 16 $14 $0 +0%
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Verstappen? Jun 16 $45 $0 +0%
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Russell? Jun 16 $63 $0 +0%
Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Russell? Jun 16 $108 $0 +0%
Who will finish higher: Norris or Russell? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Who will finish higher: Hamilton or Piastri? Jun 16 $104 +$1 +1%
Who will finish higher: Norris or Hamilton? Jun 16 $161 $0 +0%
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Hamilton? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Hamilton? Jun 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Interest rate" this week? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Generation" this week? Jun 15 $41 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Danger" this week? Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $110 +$8 +7%
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $223 +$2 +1%
Will 9z qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $62 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $292 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $204 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $1,591 +$2 +0%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $129 Week of June 15 Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $15 +$3 +22%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $139 +$1 +1%
Will Jake Paul attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in June? Jun 14 $498 +$7 +1%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 14 $191 −$16 -9%
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 13 $273 +$2 +1%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $32 +$8 +27%
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 13 $1,845 +$6 +0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 12 $246 +$2 +1%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $510 $0 +0%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 12 $1,988 +$2 +0%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 12 $97 $0 +0%
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on Jun 12 $17 +$2 +9%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 12 $163 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Romano Schmid: 1+ assists BUY No 100¢ $10 6m
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 100¢ $150 25m
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? BUY Under 100¢ $30 30m
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 70¢ $140 59m
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 70¢ $66 1h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 70¢ $142 1h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY No 100¢ $39 2h
Will Z.ai have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026 BUY No 88¢ $44 5h
Will Z.ai have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026 BUY No 94¢ $28 5h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 90¢ $4 17h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 93¢ $14 17h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 92¢ $15 17h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 92¢ $15 17h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 91¢ $9 17h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 91¢ $14 17h
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 98¢ $98 17h
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 98¢ $98 17h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 96¢ $106 18h
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 100¢ $53 22h
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 98¢ $106 22h
Will Kevin Johnson advance from the CA-16 primary election? BUY No 100¢ $25 24h
Will Kevin Johnson advance from the CA-16 primary election? BUY No 100¢ $7 24h
Will Rakhi Israni Singh advance from the CA-14 primary election? BUY No 100¢ $35 24h
Will Matt Ortega advance from the CA-14 primary election? BUY No 100¢ $100 24h
Will Chi Ossé win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary? BUY No 100¢ $100 26h
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? SELL No 98¢ $40 27h
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $98 29h
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Hamilton? BUY Hamilton 99¢ $5 29h
Who will finish higher: Hamilton or Piastri? BUY Hamilton 99¢ $104 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,618.17 · official $16,618.19 (match) · 3500 history records