Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:24:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CA 0xca0e…7248 crypto 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,263 (-9%) realized −$1,712 · open −$551
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%38W / 65L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$761now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$953
7 days+$773
14 days−$6,079
30 days−$2,280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$801
sports 12% −$2,030
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +1.0% -8.6% 42% 42% -2.3%
≤30d 103 -18.8% -26.5% 37% 37% -18.5%
≤90d 103 -18.8% -26.5% 37% 37% -18.5%
all 103 -18.8% -26.5% 37% 37% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 37% -18.5%
10% -33.6% 36% -26.3%
15% -40.0% 35% -33.4%
20% -45.9% 33% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -32% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$280 vs −$199 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$761
Realized−$1,712
Unrealized−$551
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses38 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage25d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 50¢ 29¢ $1,312 $761 −$551 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $525 −$525 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $248 −$235 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $243 −$235 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $127 +$122 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $1,041 −$1,000 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $509 +$656 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $424 −$400 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $105 +$224 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $490 +$464 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $420 −$400 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $626 −$600 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $727 +$931 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $315 +$697 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $106 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $520 +$633 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $319 +$201 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$84 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$255 +600%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $312 +$389 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $596 +$722 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $414 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $414 +$400 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $78 −$76 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $73 −$69 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 05 $55 −$53 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 05 $60 −$58 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 05 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 05 $116 +$102 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 05 $94 −$91 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 05 $52 +$89 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 05 $52 +$62 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 05 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 05 $34 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 05 $105 −$105 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $161 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $364 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $248 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $243 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $75 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $523 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $518 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $509 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $76 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $760.96 · official $760.96 (match) · 431 history records