Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:10:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xca09…511b sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$92 (+3%) realized +$51 · open +$41
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$124
14 days+$124
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$12
other 5% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +2.4% -7.4% 56% 48% -5.4%
≤30d 26 -1.5% -10.9% 54% 46% -9.6%
≤90d 26 -1.5% -10.9% 54% 46% -9.6%
all 26 -1.5% -10.9% 54% 46% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 46% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 38% -18.2%
15% -27.2% 35% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 31% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$69 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage16d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Mayar Sherif 57¢ 92¢ $67 $108 +$41 (+60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski Jun 18 $111 −$43 -38%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $128 −$18 -14%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $90 +$51 +57%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$37 +93%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $282 +$163 +58%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $171 +$111 +64%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $32 −$16 -49%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $160 +$27 +17%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $55 +$104 +188%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo Jun 17 $56 −$55 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $346 −$175 -51%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $111 +$80 +72%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $168 +$29 +17%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $111 +$56 +51%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $79 −$78 -99%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $125 −$32 -26%
ITF Maanshan: Evan Zhu vs Hoyoung Roh Jun 16 $59 −$59 -99%
ITF Taipei: Fang An Lin vs Mio Mushika Jun 16 $83 −$50 -61%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $61 +$22 +36%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $56 +$5 +9%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $113 +$118 +105%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $73 −$72 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $70 +$4 +6%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $56 +$14 +26%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 02 $240 −$125 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 57¢ $68 58m
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 25¢ $68 1h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 39¢ $111 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng SELL Chun-Hsin Tseng 38¢ $110 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 42¢ $128 2h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 60¢ $78 4h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 60¢ $10 4h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 54¢ $3 4h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 54¢ $12 5h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 51¢ $40 19h
England to score first vs. Croatia? SELL Yes 99¢ $445 19h
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 62¢ $282 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $282 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $171 22h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic SELL Sarah Rakotomanga 28¢ $16 22h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 52¢ $32 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $187 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $160 23h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 34¢ $55 25h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Daria Zelinskaya 56¢ $56 33h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $170 44h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 52¢ $170 44h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $175 45h
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Manoj Dhamne Manas 69¢ $101 46h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Fabian Marozsan 99¢ $188 2d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 57¢ $111 2d
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva SELL Joao Lucas Da Silva 99¢ $197 2d
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Joao Lucas Da Silva 84¢ $168 2d
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato SELL Marco Cecchinato 99¢ $168 2d
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Marco Cecchinato 65¢ $111 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.83 · official $110.18 · 59 history records