Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca08…08bd crypto 573 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$184 (-1%) realized −$6 · open −$178
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate61%344W / 223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day87.1pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days+$37
14 days−$239
30 days−$325
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$324
crypto 34% −$406
other 18% +$216
weather 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 +0.5% -9.1% 65% 44% -9.2%
≤30d 567 -17.1% -25.0% 61% 49% -11.3%
≤90d 567 -17.1% -25.0% 61% 49% -11.3%
all 567 -17.1% -25.0% 61% 49% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.0% 49% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -32.2% 47% -19.7%
15% -38.8% 11% -27.5%
20% -44.8% 8% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$16 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$392
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$178
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses344 / 223
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions6
Markets (closed)567 / 573
History coverage20d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day87.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 567 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Odd 99¢ 50¢ $248 $125 −$123 (-50%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ 50¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 99¢ 97¢ $99 $97 −$2 (-2%)
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Under 55¢ 100¢ $38 $69 +$31 (+82%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 66¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: REF (-1.5) vs Game Master (+1.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $31 +$19 +61%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 +$30 +43%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $488 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $18 +$12 +64%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $12 +$8 +67%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $400 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $45 +$5 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $26 +$24 +92%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $55 −$5 -9%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $59 +$41 +70%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $43 +$7 +17%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $43 +$13 +30%
First Blood in Game 1? Jun 16 $109 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $35 +$15 +43%
Game 1: Ends in Daytime? Jun 16 $115 +$1 +1%
Game 1: Any Player Ultra Kill? Jun 16 $277 +$3 +1%
Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan? Jun 16 $306 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 16 $91 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $37 +$5 +14%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $26 +$24 +92%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $37 +$63 +172%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $95 −$20 -21%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $72 +$28 +38%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $16 +$34 +206%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $41 +$9 +22%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $34 +$16 +45%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$10 +52%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $40 +$10 +25%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $63 +$1 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $29 +$21 +70%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $45 12m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $14 12m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $21 13m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $20 13m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $100 17m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $51 17m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $49 18m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $53 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 66¢ $33 1h
Game 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Odd 100¢ $50 2h
Game 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Odd 99¢ $198 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $9 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 10¢ $9 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $480 3h
Game Handicap: REF (-1.5) vs Game Master (+1.5) BUY Team Refuser 99¢ $5 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $15 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $70 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $21 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $2 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $70 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 62¢ $31 5h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $23 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 100¢ $400 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 100¢ $11 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 100¢ $189 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $9 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $10 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $18 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $391.93 · official $391.96 (match) · 2397 history records