Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:53:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xca08…c267
sports · 390 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$183 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11 · open −$103
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$926
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$103
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses116 / 164
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions108
Markets (closed)280 / 390
History coverage17d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day191.3
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 108 History 280 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$550
7 days−$815
14 days−$175
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 86¢ 90¢ $80 $84 +$4 (+5%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? No 71¢ 84¢ $56 $66 +$10 (+17%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 61¢ 100¢ $38 $62 +$24 (+63%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? No 92¢ 90¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 94¢ 93¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 84¢ 88¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 88¢ $33 $37 +$4 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 82¢ 91¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+11%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 86¢ 90¢ $31 $33 +$1 (+4%)
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? No 95¢ 98¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? No 85¢ 81¢ $28 $26 −$1 (-4%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Hanwha Life Esports 53¢ 100¢ $11 $21 +$10 (+90%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+9%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 84¢ 97¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+15%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? No 89¢ 94¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? No 84¢ 88¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 88¢ 94¢ $13 $13 +$1 (+7%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 76¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 47¢ 34¢ $18 $13 −$5 (-28%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 90¢ 94¢ $12 $12 +$1 (+5%)
Will MOUZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 77¢ 73¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 64¢ 48¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 $0 -7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +17%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +43%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $3 $0 -1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 12 $6 $0 -3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $7 $0 -5%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 12 $8 $0 -3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $9 $0 -3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $23 −$2 -8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $11 $0 -4%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $9 −$8 -93%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $3 $0 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $71 −$4 -6%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $3 +$2 +63%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $8 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $521 −$9 -2%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito Jun 12 $3 $0 +13%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +35%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $3 +$1 +21%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $17 +$7 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $115 −$97 -84%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $14 −$4 -27%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +6%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $6 +$4 +66%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 $0 -8%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $40 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 11 $2 $0 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $15 −$1 -8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $9 −$5 -49%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $3 +$2 +74%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $8 +$3 +34%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$3 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 40% +$161
sports 14% −$531
crypto 12% −$26
politics 12% −$16
other 9% −$11
tech 6% −$64
finance 6% +$404
economics 1% +$2
culture 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 97¢ $2 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 7m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $3 11m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $4 11m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 81¢ $1 12m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 12m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 53¢ $1 13m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 89¢ $2 13m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 94¢ $2 14m
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 31¢ $2 14m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $2 14m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 46¢ $2 15m
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 89¢ $3 15m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 48¢ $0 16m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 81¢ $3 16m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 17m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 76¢ $5 17m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 61¢ $5 18m
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Paraguay 78¢ $5 18m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $6 19m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Qatar 43¢ $8 19m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 83¢ $9 19m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 53¢ $9 19m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 19m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $11 21m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 46¢ $12 21m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 48¢ $0 21m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $25 22m
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 23m
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 230 -9.8% -18.3% 41% 28% -27.6%
≤30d 280 +9.4% -1.0% 41% 29% -9.4%
≤90d 280 +9.4% -1.0% 41% 29% -9.4%
all 280 +9.4% -1.0% 41% 29% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover191.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.0% 29% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -10.5% 19% -18.1%
15% -19.1% 15% -26.0%
20% -27.0% 11% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $925.92 · official $924.28 (match) · 3500 history records