Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:18:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca07…6269 sports 1108 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$500 (-2%) realized −$463 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate27%293W / 797L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day39.3pace
Fees−$174est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$547
14 days−$629
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$985
other 27% +$816
weather 16% −$603
finance 5% +$123
politics 3% +$52
tech 2% +$4
world 1% +$254
crypto 0% −$17
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 -8.4% -17.1% 16% 8% -19.4%
≤30d 351 +0.3% -9.2% 27% 15% -9.5%
≤90d 1090 -10.4% -19.0% 27% 22% -10.8%
all 1090 -10.4% -19.0% 27% 22% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 22% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 20% -19.3%
15% -33.8% 20% -27.1%
20% -40.3% 18% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$7 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$463
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses293 / 797
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$174
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1090 / 1108
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day39.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 1090 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? No 57¢ 56¢ $98 $96 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? No 53¢ 46¢ $28 $25 −$3 (-12%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 17¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 19? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $26 $6 −$20 (-76%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 20? Yes 41¢ 30¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-28%)
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes 34¢ 16¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-51%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 20? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Trump announce Stephen Hahn as the next FDA commissioner by December 31? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Switzerland 17¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No 33¢ 35¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$4 +189%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 20? Jun 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? Jun 18 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 18 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Jun 18 $3 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $68 −$10 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? Jun 17 $13 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $16 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 16 $17 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? Jun 16 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 −$10 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $7 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $53 +$10 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $78 −$78 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $65 −$4 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 15 $182 −$129 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 −$18 -84%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $915 −$97 -11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 15 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $104 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $16 −$5 -34%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$1 +14%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 15 $92 −$54 -59%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 17¢ $0 17m
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 17¢ $1 17m
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 17¢ $0 17m
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 17¢ $0 17m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 20? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 17m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $2 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? SELL No 49¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? SELL No 50¢ $51 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 20? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? SELL No 54¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 53¢ $117 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 57¢ $13 5h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 20? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? SELL Yes 37¢ $18 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 57¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? SELL Yes 37¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 58¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 57¢ $44 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 57¢ $11 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 57¢ $171 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 55¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 20? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? SELL Yes 37¢ $15 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 20? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.14 · official $169.16 (match) · 3500 history records