Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:13:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca06…f65b sports 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$399 (-7%) realized −$399 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%59W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$420
14 days−$453
30 days−$462
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$58
other 26% −$526
world 15% +$94
politics 3% −$7
crypto 1% +$42
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -51.2% -55.9% 17% 17% -66.8%
≤30d 106 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 41% -17.8%
≤90d 121 -4.4% -13.5% 49% 40% -17.0%
all 121 -4.4% -13.5% 49% 40% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 40% -17.0%
10% -21.8% 35% -24.9%
15% -29.4% 22% -32.2%
20% -36.3% 12% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$25 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$399
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses59 / 62
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)121 / 123
History coverage47d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 25 $50 −$5 -9%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$24 +468%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Armenia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 21 $67 −$67 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$28 +55%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$11 +221%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$28 +28%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 $0 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $130 +$42 +32%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$23 -46%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$19 +368%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$13 +63%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$95 +1843%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 18h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Max Holloway 65¢ $46 18h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $29 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $78 6d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 6d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 7d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 7d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 7d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $27 7d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $21 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.23 · official $35.23 (match) · 296 history records