Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C9 0xc9f8…8bbd other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 626d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$149 (-4%) realized −$148 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate20%5W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,031now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$17
politics 29% −$4
sports 12% −$129
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 25 -21.1% -28.6% 20% 16% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 16% -14.8%
10% -35.4% 16% -23.0%
15% -41.7% 16% -30.4%
20% -47.4% 16% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$14 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

626d coverage
Net worth$1,031
Realized−$148
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses5 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage626d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $632 $632 −$0 (-0%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $400 $400 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Spread: BAL (-4.5) Sep 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Yankees vs. Twins Sep 22 $24 +$16 +64%
Blue Jays vs. Rays Sep 17 $12 +$12 +99%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 16 $5 +$7 +127%
Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kim Kyoung-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? May 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 25 $4 $0 -1%
Canucks vs. Canadiens Jan 08 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Lamar Jackson be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Predators vs. Canucks Jan 05 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Liverpool lead the EPL in points at midway point? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Jan 03 $112 +$99 +89%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 03 $13 −$13 -100%
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)? Oct 01 $12 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $400 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $632 1h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,033 1h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,034 12h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,025 12h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,026 19h
Spread: BAL (-4.5) BUY BAL 51¢ $38 268d
Yankees vs. Twins BUY Yankees 61¢ $24 273d
Blue Jays vs. Rays BUY Blue Jays 50¢ $12 274d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Buccaneers 44¢ $5 276d
Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 337d
Will Solana reach $220 in June? BUY No 100¢ $4 359d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 394d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 395d
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $5 395d
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 397d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 397d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 398d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? SELL No 69¢ $4 401d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? BUY No 69¢ $4 401d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 99¢ $5 405d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 99¢ $5 405d
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%? BUY Yes $1 405d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $6 407d
Will Kim Kyoung-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $1 407d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 407d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 408d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 408d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 98¢ $5 413d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 99¢ $5 413d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,031.48 · official $1,031.48 (match) · 55 history records