Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:51:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9f4…c1e4 sports 128 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$14 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%50W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days+$21
14 days−$23
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +5.3% -4.7% 46% 46% -4.3%
≤30d 125 -13.0% -21.2% 39% 38% -11.3%
≤90d 126 -12.2% -20.6% 40% 38% -10.7%
all 126 -12.2% -20.6% 40% 38% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 38% -10.7%
10% -28.2% 37% -19.2%
15% -35.1% 35% -27.0%
20% -41.5% 29% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses50 / 76
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)126 / 128
History coverage31d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Mentality Monster 64¢ 48¢ $13 $9 −$3 (-26%)
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Mentality Monster 55¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$6 +67%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 14 $8 +$11 +140%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 −$17 -99%
Dota 2: 5chudsnoanchor vs Mit Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$3 +41%
Dota 2: 5chudsnoanchor vs Mit Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$3 +165%
Dota 2: cyberdingzhen vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: cyberdingzhen vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $1 +$12 +874%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 +$6 +39%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $15 −$2 -13%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $6 +$9 +154%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $13 +$5 +38%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 10 $8 +$12 +146%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $21 +$6 +26%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $12 +$10 +83%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $14 +$11 +74%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $9 −$9 -99%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $19 +$5 +26%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs cincai team - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $13 +$9 +70%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs cincai team - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $11 +$5 +48%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $14 +$6 +42%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $17 +$9 +54%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $12 −$12 -99%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 08 $11 +$11 +96%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $11 +$7 +61%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: G-Time vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 59¢ $5 11m
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 69¢ $4 16m
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 67¢ $3 16m
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 50¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 59¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 28¢ $3 3h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 59¢ $9 3h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 51¢ $8 5h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY D family 29¢ $3 5h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe BUY Mentality Monster 41¢ $8 24h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 49¢ $12 25h
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY summer bear 54¢ $14 35h
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner BUY summer bear 58¢ $3 36h
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner BUY summer bear 61¢ $14 36h
Dota 2: cyberdingzhen vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 2 Winner BUY cyberdingzhen 33¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: 5chudsnoanchor vs Mit Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Mit Esports 71¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: 5chudsnoanchor vs Mit Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Mit Esports 71¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: 5chudsnoanchor vs Mit Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Mit Esports 70¢ $4 2d
Dota 2: cyberdingzhen vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 1 Winner BUY cyberdingzhen 32¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: cyberdingzhen vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 1 Winner BUY cyberdingzhen 53¢ $3 2d
Dota 2: 5chudsnoanchor vs Mit Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Mit Esports 37¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nemiga Gaming 42¢ $4 2d
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open BUY 4ikibamboni 10¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Nemiga Gaming 15¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY Level UP 47¢ $3 2d
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY Level UP 60¢ $8 2d
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY Level UP 72¢ $15 2d
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 29¢ $3 2d
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima - Game 2 Winner BUY Pandawa Lima 12¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Yellow Submarine 60¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.25 · official $9.25 (match) · 285 history records