Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:29:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C9 0xc9f4…d346 crypto 785 markets active 0h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,675 (-9%) realized −$1,681 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%327W / 457L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$536
7 days−$281
14 days−$751
30 days−$1,251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,463
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +7.1% -3.1% 41% 41% -16.6%
≤30d 364 -7.1% -16.0% 47% 46% -14.7%
≤90d 783 -4.3% -13.5% 42% 39% -15.9%
all 784 -4.5% -13.6% 42% 39% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 39% -15.9%
10% -21.8% 37% -23.9%
15% -29.4% 33% -31.3%
20% -36.3% 25% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$1,681
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses327 / 457
Open positions1
Markets (closed)784 / 785
History coverage154d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 784 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Up 33¢ 70¢ $5 $10 +$6 (+112%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 379 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $79 −$13 -17%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$7 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$12 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$13 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$11 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $49 +$48 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$20 -71%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $77 −$75 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$29 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$5 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$5 -19%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$24 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$7 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$38 +151%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$6 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $129 +$97 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$99 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $129 +$91 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$32 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$100 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 26m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 26m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $27 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $59 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $6 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $79 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $20 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $7 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $20 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $15 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $8 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $34 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $44 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $35 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $7 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $28 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $39 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $77 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.13 · official $10.50 · 2445 history records