Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:13:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9f0…801d world 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate26%28W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$17
14 days−$12
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$51
other 24% +$25
sports 15% +$5
politics 14% +$1
economics 4% −$1
finance 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$15
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.4% -10.8% 22% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 27 -1.2% -10.6% 22% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 81 +23.8% +12.0% 27% 5% -9.8%
all 107 +17.9% +6.7% 26% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.7% 4% -9.8%
10% -3.5% 3% -18.5%
15% -12.8% 1% -26.3%
20% -21.4% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses28 / 79
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage316d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $92 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $127 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $140 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $4 $0 -8%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $12 +$1 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $462 +$2 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $178 −$6 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $219 −$13 -6%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $143 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $130 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $130 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $278 −$5 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $299 +$10 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $146 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $135 −$6 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $135 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $210 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $579 +$5 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $165 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $333 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $86 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $33 −$1 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $167 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $174 −$16 -9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $42 −$6 -14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $331 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $158 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $78 +$18 +23%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $139 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 21 $76 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $153 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 19 $165 −$12 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 17 $171 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $3 $0 -7%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $79 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $16 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $159 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $160 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $161 −$2 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $20 −$2 -13%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $273 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $373 +$9 +2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $306 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $92 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $92 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $118 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $10 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $127 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $140 26h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $140 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $12 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $73 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $40 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $87 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $14 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $38 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $17 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $57 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $20 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.00 (match) · 457 history records