Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:47:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9ef…eb67 sports 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$827 (-11%) realized −$821 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%59W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days−$834
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$787
other 37% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +67.4% +51.5% 75% 75% +73.0%
≤30d 10 -18.5% -26.3% 40% 40% -74.2%
≤90d 124 -8.4% -17.1% 48% 45% -20.9%
all 124 -8.4% -17.1% 48% 45% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 45% -20.9%
10% -25.0% 42% -28.5%
15% -32.3% 38% -35.4%
20% -38.9% 28% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$39 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized−$821
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses59 / 65
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 126
History coverage58d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-06-28? No 63¢ 62¢ $400 $395 −$5 (-1%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $10 +$14 +140%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Teodora Kostovic vs Lin Zhu Jun 25 $1 +$2 +188%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris Jun 25 $8 +$3 +42%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Claire Liu vs Elena Pridankina Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $623 −$615 -99%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 05 $202 +$91 +45%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $263 −$260 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $81 −$80 -99%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks May 22 $602 −$600 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Juan Carlos Prado May 21 $101 +$58 +57%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro May 21 $151 +$56 +37%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Xiyu Wang May 21 $13 −$13 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Claire Liu May 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $36 +$16 +44%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $152 +$98 +65%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Xinyu Gao vs Harmony Tan May 20 $20 +$23 +114%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Zdenek Kolar May 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Storm Hunter vs Xiyu Wang May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Despina Papamichail vs Hanyu Guo May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Diane Parry May 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $40 +$17 +42%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $7 +$17 +238%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Emilio Nava vs Yunchaokete Bu May 19 $35 +$15 +44%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Darja Vidmanova vs Xinyu Gao May 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Magdalena Frech vs Leylah Fernandez May 19 $15 +$15 +101%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $13 +$16 +124%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-20? May 19 $202 −$200 -99%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris May 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Cristina Bucsa May 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $16 +$31 +188%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $150 +$16 +11%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $20 +$17 +86%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $404 +$64 +16%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $37 +$30 +79%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $401 +$35 +9%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Sh May 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $33 −$33 -99%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Beijing Ducks May 15 $151 +$49 +32%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina May 15 $2 +$7 +325%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff May 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 63¢ $404 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes $1 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 41¢ $10 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Teodora Kostovic vs Lin Zhu BUY Teodora Kostovic 34¢ $1 32h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Claire Liu vs Elena Pridankina BUY Elena Pridankina 37¢ $1 32h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 70¢ $8 32h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $623 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 24¢ $10 22d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions BUY Shanghai Sharks 68¢ $101 23d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions BUY Shanghai Sharks 68¢ $101 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $263 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 21¢ $14 24d
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Shanghai Sharks 47¢ $41 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 22¢ $1 24d
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Shanghai Sharks 39¢ $4 24d
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $81 34d
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Beijing Ducks 90¢ $602 35d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Xiyu Wang BUY Polina Kudermetova 44¢ $13 36d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Claire Liu BUY Lulu Sun 38¢ $10 36d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 72¢ $151 36d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Juan Carlos Prado BUY Juan Carlos Prado 63¢ $101 36d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 69¢ $36 36d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $152 36d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Zdenek Kolar BUY Zdenek Kolar 63¢ $30 37d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Storm Hunter vs Xiyu Wang BUY Storm Hunter 29¢ $1 37d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Despina Papamichail vs Hanyu Guo BUY Despina Papamichail 35¢ $1 37d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 65¢ $30 37d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Xinyu Gao vs Harmony Tan BUY Harmony Tan 46¢ $20 37d
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 37d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Darja Vidmanova vs Xinyu Gao BUY Darja Vidmanova 47¢ $10 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.24 · official $395.24 (match) · 209 history records