Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:21:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9ee…818b sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-15%) realized −$2 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$38
other 26% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-62.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -58.8% -62.7% 20% 20% -39.3%
≤30d 5 -58.8% -62.7% 20% 20% -39.3%
≤90d 5 -58.8% -62.7% 20% 20% -39.3%
all 5 -58.8% -62.7% 20% 20% -39.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.7% 20% -39.3%
10% -66.3% 0% -45.1%
15% -69.5% 0% -50.4%
20% -72.5% 0% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 55¢ 28¢ $35 $17 −$18 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 −$12 -61%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$3 +11%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $35 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 31h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $8 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $10 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 36¢ $8 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.84 · official $47.84 (match) · 13 history records