Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:51:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C9 0xc9ee…9a18 crypto 373 markets active 1h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,731 (-28%) realized −$10,480 · open −$2,251
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%37W / 321L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$420now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$13,879
other 15% +$1,251
economics 1% −$335
tech 1% +$328
world 0% −$55
finance 0% −$48
politics 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 24 -56.5% -60.6% 4% 4% -69.8%
all 358 -27.2% -34.1% 10% 10% -38.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 10% -38.5%
10% -40.4% 10% -44.4%
15% -46.2% 10% -49.8%
20% -51.5% 10% -54.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -36% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$711 vs −$115 · ×6.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$420
Realized−$10,480
Unrealized−$2,251
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses37 / 321
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)358 / 373
History coverage214d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 358 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $105 $98 −$8 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $57 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $85 $42 −$43 (-50%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-8%)
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? Yes 19¢ 8¢ $50 $20 −$30 (-60%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $449 $18 −$432 (-96%)
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $782 $17 −$764 (-98%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $507 $5 −$503 (-99%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $239 $2 −$237 (-99%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $117 $1 −$116 (-99%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $47 $1 −$46 (-98%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-99%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 304 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? Apr 17 $48 −$45 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 21? Apr 17 $60 −$56 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 21? Apr 17 $128 −$120 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? Apr 17 $179 −$166 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 21? Apr 17 $52 −$49 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 22? Apr 17 $154 −$144 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 17 $211 −$199 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? Apr 17 $197 −$184 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 16? Apr 15 $208 −$195 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 17? Apr 15 $80 −$74 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 16? Apr 15 $74 −$69 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? Apr 15 $75 −$70 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 17? Apr 15 $85 −$79 -93%
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? Apr 15 $93 −$35 -37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $82 −$77 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? Apr 14 $150 −$139 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $22 −$21 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 16? Apr 14 $124 −$116 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? Apr 14 $106 −$98 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $78 +$692 +882%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $104 −$99 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 15? Apr 14 $59 −$55 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 19? Apr 14 $190 −$190 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 6? Apr 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 11 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 11 $275 −$275 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $65-$70 in March? Mar 09 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $60-$65 in March? Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$75 in March? Mar 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 09 $477 −$477 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 09 $168 −$168 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? Feb 22 $292 −$267 -92%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of February? Feb 22 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 22 $358 −$358 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 20 $754 −$754 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February? Feb 11 $920 −$920 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of February? Feb 04 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $160 by end of February? Feb 02 $249 −$249 -100%
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Feb 01 $368 −$367 -100%
Will Meta (META) close above $600 end of January? Jan 30 $41 −$41 -99%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January? Jan 30 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Jan 29 $233 +$1,365 +586%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January? Jan 29 $88 +$2,805 +3184%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Jan 26 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? Jan 26 $386 +$1,510 +391%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 24 $71 −$53 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $33 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $58 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $29 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $32 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $71 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $32 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $29 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? BUY No 5¢ $47 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? BUY No 4¢ $1 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 21? BUY No 12¢ $60 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 4¢ $24 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 4¢ $42 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 4¢ $42 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $29 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $88 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $33 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 11¢ $98 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 4¢ $19 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $420.10 · official $420.10 (match) · 1770 history records