Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:27:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C9 0xc9eb…2446 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$339 (+19%) realized +$341 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%20W / 30L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$251
14 days+$316
30 days+$316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$280
crypto 9% +$20
sports 1% +$6
world 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -33.5% -39.8% 35% 35% +6.0%
≤30d 50 -20.5% -28.0% 40% 40% +7.2%
≤90d 50 -20.5% -28.0% 40% 40% +7.2%
all 50 -20.5% -28.0% 40% 40% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 40% +7.2%
10% -34.9% 38% -3.1%
15% -41.2% 32% -12.5%
20% -47.0% 26% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$12 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$341
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses20 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage13d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-21%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No 31¢ 85¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+170%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $101 +$80 +79%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $131 +$21 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$68 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$18 -90%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $184 +$59 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $245 +$59 +24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$92 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $106 +$48 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -95%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $36 +$52 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$35 +35%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $87 +$45 +52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $60 +$27 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$19 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 +$17 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 +$18 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $16 +$10 +62%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9 +$8 +86%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$16 +474%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 +$7 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $5 22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 46h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $131 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $169 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $242 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 75¢ $184 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.23 · official $53.23 (match) · 78 history records