Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9e9…2bc6 politics 47 markets active 8h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$195 (-13%) realized −$195 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%18W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% −$126
other 23% −$59
sports 8% −$16
world 2% +$10
crypto 2% $0
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-47.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -19.1% -26.8% 62% 54% -9.1%
≤30d 14 -15.5% -23.5% 64% 57% -6.9%
≤90d 15 -19.0% -26.7% 60% 53% -19.3%
all 45 -41.6% -47.2% 40% 33% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.2% 33% -21.7%
10% -52.2% 22% -29.2%
15% -56.9% 16% -36.0%
20% -61.1% 11% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$18 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$195
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage594d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 −$30 -76%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $63 +$9 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$13 +62%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 +$19 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 +$7 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $56 +$10 +18%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $13 +$5 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$7 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 17 $41 +$3 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $31 +$10 +31%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 03 $96 −$65 -68%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jan 19 $60 +$36 +59%
Trump takes Panama Canal in 2025? Mar 06 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Mar 06 $3 −$2 -82%
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? Mar 06 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? Mar 06 $46 +$7 +15%
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? Feb 02 $20 $0 -2%
Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election? Feb 02 $135 +$2 +1%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Jan 23 $1 +$1 +100%
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days? Jan 22 $60 +$5 +8%
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? Jan 22 $2 −$2 -100%
US recession in 2025? Jan 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Jan 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? Jan 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Greenland" during victory rally? Jan 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Border" 10 or more times during victory rally? Jan 20 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during victory rally? Jan 20 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jan 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? Nov 17 $3 −$2 -62%
Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? Nov 17 $20 −$16 -79%
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Nov 17 $76 +$37 +49%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 8-15? Nov 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times November 8-15? Nov 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times November 8-15? Nov 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times November 8-15? Nov 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times November 8-15? Nov 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 200-224 times November 8-15? Nov 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times November 8-15? Nov 13 $10 −$10 -100%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 5-14 Nov 10 $30 −$30 -100%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34 Nov 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $179 +$124 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $11 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 86¢ $33 8h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $9 33h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 33h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 33h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 34h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 34h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 34h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $21 36h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $13 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 44h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka SELL Martyna Kubka 100¢ $66 44h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Martyna Kubka 84¢ $56 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $13 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 2d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 94¢ $41 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $41 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $31 47d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $31 47d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $96 151d
Trump takes Panama Canal in 2025? BUY Yes 17¢ $45 470d
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 470d
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 470d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.24 · official $40.24 (match) · 101 history records