Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

C9 0xc9e7…3226 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$9per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-22.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-14.4%	-22.5%	50%	50%	-13.1%
≤30d	2	-14.4%	-22.5%	50%	50%	-13.1%
≤90d	2	-14.4%	-22.5%	50%	50%	-13.1%
all	2	-14.4%	-22.5%	50%	50%	-13.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-22.5%	50%	-13.1%
10%	-29.9%	0%	-21.4%
15%	-36.7%	0%	-29.0%
20%	-42.9%	0%	-36.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -4% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.74 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$34

Realized+$0

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage4d

Avg bet$9

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	57¢	57¢	$30	$30	+$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1	$0	-46%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$2	$0	+17%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$4	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$30	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	5¢	$1	2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$1	3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	16¢	$2	3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.42 · official $34.42 (match) · 7 history records