Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:15:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9e7…56d8 sports 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (287 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$356 (+2%) realized +$408 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%46W / 36L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day287.3pace
Fees−$230est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$381
7 days−$196
14 days+$196
30 days+$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (287 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -3.1% -12.4% 55% 55% -11.2%
≤30d 82 +0.9% -8.7% 56% 56% -8.4%
≤90d 82 +0.9% -8.7% 56% 56% -8.4%
all 82 +0.9% -8.7% 56% 56% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover287.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 56% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 52% -17.2%
15% -25.4% 48% -25.2%
20% -32.7% 38% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
34.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$157 vs −$195 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$338
Realized+$408
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses46 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$230
Open positions4
Markets (closed)82 / 86
History coverage10d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day287.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 42¢ 33¢ $169 $133 −$36 (-21%)
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) 9z 66¢ 75¢ $84 $95 +$11 (+14%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner 9z 41¢ 28¢ $85 $59 −$26 (-31%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 44¢ 43¢ $52 $51 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 15 $411 −$411 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $338 −$174 -52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $446 +$444 +99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $283 +$145 +51%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $169 −$169 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $170 +$152 +90%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $168 −$168 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $87 −$87 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $263 +$114 +43%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $86 +$83 +97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $63 +$9 +15%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $385 +$365 +95%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $86 +$83 +97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $256 −$256 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $170 +$159 +93%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $170 −$170 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $502 −$502 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $168 +$163 +97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $155 +$19 +12%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $501 +$148 +30%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O Jun 13 $16 +$4 +24%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $420 +$738 +176%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $164 +$119 +73%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $110 −$110 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $86 +$125 +146%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $170 +$175 +103%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $45 +$20 +44%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $171 +$203 +119%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $156 +$91 +58%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $167 −$167 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $172 −$172 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $172 −$172 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $168 −$168 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $169 −$169 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $355 −$355 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $110 +$57 +52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $499 +$190 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $169 +$200 +119%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $168 +$184 +109%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $86 −$86 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $172 +$160 +93%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $84 −$84 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $169 +$171 +101%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $102 −$102 -100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $283 −$283 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $425 −$425 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $33 +$10 +29%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $68 −$68 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $173 −$173 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 41¢ $86 52m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 42¢ $3 54m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 42¢ $170 54m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $53 1h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 66¢ $84 1h
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY Team Liquid 58¢ $2 15h
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY Team Liquid 58¢ $6 15h
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY Team Liquid 58¢ $5 15h
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY Team Liquid 58¢ $26 15h
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY Team Liquid 59¢ $3 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 58¢ $9 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 58¢ $19 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 57¢ $9 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 57¢ $13 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 56¢ $6 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 56¢ $4 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 56¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 52¢ $84 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 52¢ $84 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 54¢ $7 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 54¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 54¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 55¢ $6 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 56¢ $18 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 55¢ $8 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 55¢ $16 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 55¢ $18 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 57¢ $18 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $85 16h
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY Team Liquid 65¢ $200 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.18 · official $338.20 (match) · 3039 history records