Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C9 0xc9e2…a9f4 crypto 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-20%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$50
sports 21% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-65.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -52.6% -57.1% 25% 25% -59.3%
≤30d 5 -62.1% -65.7% 20% 20% -67.7%
≤90d 5 -62.1% -65.7% 20% 20% -67.7%
all 5 -62.1% -65.7% 20% 20% -67.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.7% 20% -67.7%
10% -69.0% 20% -70.8%
15% -72.0% 20% -73.6%
20% -74.7% 20% -76.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$23 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage30d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $43 −$40 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $22 +$20 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $22 −$20 -92%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $25 −$24 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $22 1h
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 28¢ $4 29d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 41¢ $11 29d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 40¢ $11 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records