Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C9 0xc9e1…9dc0 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,000 (+103%) realized +$3,004 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,996
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 13 -11.7% -20.1% 46% 46% +87.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 46% +87.6%
10% -27.8% 46% +69.7%
15% -34.7% 46% +53.3%
20% -41.1% 38% +38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +107% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$511 vs −$9 · ×55.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×47.44 per $1 lost it wins $47.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$3,004
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage205d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Over 26¢ 24¢ $55 $52 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Jan 19 $10 +$4 +43%
Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 229.5 Jan 19 $10 +$9 +92%
76ers vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5 Jan 19 $10 +$10 +100%
Bucks vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5 Jan 19 $10 +$10 +100%
Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5 Jan 19 $10 +$10 +100%
Spread: Rockets (-12.5) Jan 19 $2,679 +$3,021 +113%
Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5 Dec 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bucks vs. Nets: O/U 218.5 Dec 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5 Dec 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5 Dec 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Clippers vs. Heat Dec 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bucks vs. Wizards Dec 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Dec 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $56 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $56 1h
Spread: Rockets (-12.5) BUY Pelicans 47¢ $658 156d
Spread: Rockets (-12.5) BUY Pelicans 47¢ $1,081 156d
Spread: Rockets (-12.5) BUY Pelicans 47¢ $940 156d
Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 190d
Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 229.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 191d
Bucks vs. Nets: O/U 218.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 191d
76ers vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 191d
Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 193d
Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 193d
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 195d
Bucks vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 199d
Clippers vs. Heat BUY Clippers 32¢ $10 204d
Bucks vs. Wizards BUY Bucks 78¢ $10 204d
Hawks vs. Pistons BUY Hawks 24¢ $10 204d
Cavaliers vs. Pacers BUY Cavaliers 70¢ $10 204d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.73 · official $105.73 (match) · 23 history records