Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:36:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9e0…df40 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-51%) realized −$12 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$70
world 10% −$6
crypto 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$20 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 38¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-48%)
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-63%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 23¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-74%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-95%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 1h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 9¢ $10 32h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $6 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.90 · official $21.30 (match) · 7 history records