Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:41:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

C9 0xc9e0…47d7 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$508 (+13%) realized +$507 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate48%11W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$168per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$1,094

7 days+$587

14 days+$587

30 days+$587

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)-25.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-24.4%	-31.6%	40%	40%	+15.1%
≤30d	5	-24.4%	-31.6%	40%	40%	+15.1%
≤90d	5	-24.4%	-31.6%	40%	40%	+15.1%
all	23	-17.3%	-25.2%	48%	48%	+2.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.2%	48%	+2.2%
10%	-32.3%	39%	-7.6%
15%	-38.9%	26%	-16.5%
20%	-44.9%	22%	-24.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 67% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +27% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +4% → late -37% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$149 vs −$95 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.44 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage

Net worth$140

Realized+$507

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses11 / 12

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions1

Markets (closed)23 / 24

History coverage155d

Avg bet$168

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$139	$140	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$1,498	+$1,094	+73%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$572	−$563	-99%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$72	+$76	+105%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Jan 21	$166	−$166	-100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana	Jan 21	$143	+$23	+16%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage	Jan 21	$5	−$5	-100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner	Jan 21	$101	+$47	+47%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Western Europe	Jan 20	$92	−$92	-100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3)	Jan 20	$170	+$23	+14%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3)	Jan 19	$130	−$100	-77%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner	Jan 19	$56	+$114	+203%
LoL: Top Esports vs Weibo Gaming (BO3)	Jan 19	$20	−$20	-100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Jan 19	$50	−$50	-100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs JD Gaming (BO3)	Jan 18	$190	+$48	+25%
LoL: DRX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	Jan 18	$78	−$78	-100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Jan 18	$218	+$51	+23%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Jan 17	$20	−$20	-100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Jan 17	$20	+$34	+170%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3)	Jan 17	$184	+$48	+26%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner	Jan 17	$78	+$78	+100%
LoL: GAM Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3)	Jan 16	$20	−$20	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$140	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2,592	17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$1,498	28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	51¢	$572	2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	2d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	48¢	$72	3d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	BUY Top Esports	65¢	$166	150d
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana	SELL LNG Esports	100¢	$166	150d
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana	BUY LNG Esports	86¢	$143	150d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage	BUY Nongshim Red Force	11¢	$5	150d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner	SELL Dplus KIA	100¢	$148	150d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner	BUY Dplus KIA	68¢	$101	150d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Western Europe	BUY Team Liquid	62¢	$92	151d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3)	SELL Bilibili Gaming	100¢	$193	151d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3)	BUY Bilibili Gaming	88¢	$170	151d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3)	BUY EDward Gaming	62¢	$100	152d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner	SELL Ninjas in Pyjamas	100¢	$170	152d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner	BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas	33¢	$56	152d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3)	SELL Ninjas in Pyjamas	14¢	$18	152d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3)	BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas	24¢	$30	152d
LoL: Top Esports vs Weibo Gaming (BO3)	BUY Weibo Gaming	10¢	$20	152d
LoL: Top Esports vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 Winner	BUY Top Esports	32¢	$50	152d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs JD Gaming (BO3)	SELL JD Gaming	99¢	$239	153d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs JD Gaming (BO3)	BUY JD Gaming	79¢	$190	153d
LoL: DRX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1	63¢	$78	153d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner	SELL Bilibili Gaming	100¢	$268	153d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner	BUY Bilibili Gaming	81¢	$218	153d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner	BUY Invictus Gaming	23¢	$20	154d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner	SELL Invictus Gaming	100¢	$54	154d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.78 · official $139.78 (match) · 39 history records